September 2008 Archives

Given the recent flurry of new car introductions in the US market, I think it's time for a brief overview of what's available for Model Year 2009:

2009 Volkswagen Jetta TDI (Diesel) Wagon

A recent MotorTrend review of the 2009 Jetta TDI showered the diesel powered automobile with high praise.  And I couldn't agree more with the editors at MotorTrend.  The Jetta brings the brilliant, a torque happy, TDI engine state side and it delivers with an EPA estimated 30(city)/41(highway) mpg!  Moreover, the Jetta TDI produced 236 lb-ft of torque compared to 177 lb-ft found in the 2.5 liter standard, gas powered, engine.  The diesel engine also puts less Co2 gases, per mile, into the atmosphere (.65 pounds per mile for the diesel engine versus .81 pounds per mile for the gas engine).

The Jetta has a very ergonomic and high quality interior and comes standard with nice safety features, including the all important electronic stability control.  

2009 Mazda6 Sedan

Mazda has redesigned their flagship sedan for the US and the end result looks to be pretty good.  The all new 2009 Mazda6 is larger, more powerful, and includes totally revamped exterior skin and cabin.  The sheet metal in the Mazda is curvy without being too showy and the interior screams quality (without the German price tag).  The NY Times Auto section and Peter Passell seem to love the new Mazda6!

2009 Audi A4 Wagon and Sedan

Speaking of being more powerful and larger, the 2009 Audi A4 sedan and wagon are claiming the same aforementioned attributes as the Mazda6!  And, yes, the Audi sports both a new 2.0 Liter Turbo and a 3.2 Liter V6 along with a wheelbase that is 6 inches longer than the outgoing 2008 A4.

Exterior and interior styling and build quality have improved substantially, including cool LED day running lamps borrowed from the Audi R8 super car. Check out the AudiWorld site for pics and comments on the new A4 (these guys are for real!)

So, which vehicle would I purchase?  My left brain tells me to go with the fuel saving, and practical, Jetta Wagon, but my irrational, Euro-crazed, right brain is screaming Audi, Audi, Audi!

Note: The views expressed herein are solely my own and should not be attributed to my employer in any way. This site is not maintained utilizing my employer's resources or on company time.

Thanks to Danya's RuttenBerg's blog for pointing out that there are alternatives to asking US taxpayers for 700 Billion dollars; here's an interesting position/plan from Senator Bernie Sander's (Vermont).

Also, are you wondering how we got into this whole banking/mortgage mess?  Read about the history of deregulatioin starting in the early 1980's.

The current political and financial scene in Washington and New York could not be unfolding in a more dramatic fashion.  Key congressional leaders, the President, McCain, Obama, and Secretary Paulson met late into the evening yesterday only to walk away with no deal to rescue US banks and the ailing markets.  Click here for a brilliant account of the events via Stolberg of the New York Times.

Meanwhile, the US Government seized control of Washington Mutual and sold parts of it to JP Morgan Chase.

This is high drama with tons at stake, folks!

Thanks to my cousin Mike for pointing out this article/commencement speech by the late writer David Foster Wallace.  Wallace hits on a few themes in the article, but he's mostly focused on biological preservation via putting one self first, worship (not just the religious or spiritual kind), and awareness/consciousness.  In sum, though, I think Wallace is making a simple point: it's tough being human.  Here's an excerpt:

Because here's something else that's true. In the day-to-day trenches of adult life, there is actually no such thing as atheism. There is no such thing as not worshipping. Everybody worships. The only choice we get is what to worship. And an outstanding reason for choosing some sort of God or spiritual-type thing to worship -- be it J.C. or Allah, be it Yahweh or the Wiccan mother-goddess or the Four Noble Truths or some infrangible set of ethical principles -- is that pretty much anything else you worship will eat you alive. If you worship money and things -- if they are where you tap real meaning in life -- then you will never have enough. Never feel you have enough. It's the truth. Worship your own body and beauty and sexual allure and you will always feel ugly, and when time and age start showing, you will die a million deaths before they finally plant you. On one level, we all know this stuff already -- it's been codified as myths, proverbs, clichés, bromides, epigrams, parables: the skeleton of every great story. The trick is keeping the truth up-front in daily consciousness. Worship power -- you will feel weak and afraid, and you will need ever more power over others to keep the fear at bay. Worship your intellect, being seen as smart -- you will end up feeling stupid, a fraud, always on the verge of being found out. And so on.

Coincidently, I must admit to owning Infinite Jest (bought it used about 5 years ago) but never got through the first couple of pages.  I did read through a collection of essays which I thought were quite good, but the aforementioned commencement speech/article in the Wall Street Journal was particularly well done.

Here's a nice interview with Wallace on Charlie Rose in 1997, I think:

Bo Lundgren, ex Swedish Finance Minister, knows how to fix economic problems.   And now he's teaching the US government how to fix its current crisis.  Lundgren was Finance Minister during the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990's and the solution, at the time, was easy: big government intervention in the form of cash and (part) government ownership of ailing banks.  Call it fiscal socialism or whatever you'd like, but the policy worked and the same sort of intervention is needed in the US.  

So if government intervention is a strong given in the current US environment (as Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated), then the real question on the table is the level of help or involvement.  Here's what Sweden did during their crisis:

Sweden spent 4 percent of its gross domestic product, or 65 billion kronor, the equivalent of $11.7 billion at the time, or $18.3 billion in today's dollars, to rescue ailing banks. That is slightly less, proportionate to the national economy, than the $700 billion, or roughly 5 percent of gross domestic product, that the Bush administration estimates its own move will cost in the United States.

US Senators, from both parties however, are hesitant to give Bush's administration the $700 billion needed to rescue the banking sector - reasoning more along political lines then economic lines (that's a problem).  Stay tuned to see how the bailout unfolds...

Lets face it, most folks eat the same food products day in and day out (for the most part) and even as a self described "Foodie" I also fall right in line with the aforementioned way of eating.  So here's a quick list of foods I tend to eat very often (note: I try to have tuna only once a week given mercury concerns) and I think are also stellar on the ratio of protein/nutrients to fat/taste scale :

• Kashi Autumn Wheat - amazing taste and "fill you up" goodness. No corn syrup and a great, subtle sweetness. One box will last you a good 1.5 weeks and it's friggin organic!
  
• Trader Joe's Dried Prunes - provides a great energy boost and they have no sorbates unlike many other dried fruits on the market.  The prunes work well as a mid day snack, pre tennis energy jolt, or in the morning with your cereal and coffee.
  
• Genovo Tonno (or tuna) in Olive Oil - great, healthy, protein (don't ever, ever eat the stuff they put in water - it's tasteless).  Put this stuff on bread with a slice of tomato, some salt, and a litle extra olive oil and you're in heaven.
  
• Fage Yogurt - my wife got me into this type of yogurt and it's capital D-elicous.  Also, it has tons of protein, low fat, and is nice and filling (because the water is drained and it feels silky and satisying).
  
• Bird's Eye Shelled Soybeans - again, tons of protein here.  Mix with brown rice or make some linguine and toss with olive oil, garlic, parsley, and lots of parmigiano reggiano (the king of cheeses).

If you're fully engaged in the modern world then you've probably used statistics to make arguments and push a particular interest (like predicting orders or market conditions, if you work at a consumer product company, for example).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in both his book, The Black Swan, and more recently in his essay, THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS, argues that the banking industry has used statistics to lose over 1 Trillion dollars thus far (more than the industry has ever made)!

Prima facie, the argument seems convincing, but go ahead and read the essay critically and let me know what you think.

Here's some content from the essay:

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically--but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).

Why are Americans so divided when it comes to political choice?  The 2008 documentary Split: A Divided America takes a close look at the current state of American politics and the problems surrounding how we choose and elect a President.

The movie is a must see before heading out to vote in November.  Here's the trailer and the official documentary site:

Charles Murray has written a brilliant essay (Are Too Many People Going to College) on the value of a BA and the dark side of encouraging every 17 year old to strive for an undergraduate education.

In my view, every high school guidance counselor and parent should be required to read Murray's essay.  Here's Murray on becoming a top electrician versus an average office drone with a BA:

We return to our high-school graduate trying to decide between going to college and becoming an electrician. He knows that he enjoys working with his hands and likes the idea of not being stuck in the same place all day, but he also likes the idea of being a manager sitting behind a desk in a big office, telling people what to do and getting the status that goes with it.

However, he should face facts that he is unlikely to know on his own, but that a guidance counselor could help him face. His chances of getting the big office and the status are slim. He is more likely to remain in a cubicle, under the thumb of the boss in the big office. He is unlikely to have a job in which he produces something tangible during the course of the day.

There has never been a time in history when people with skills not taught in college have been in so much demand at such high pay as today.

If he becomes a top electrician instead, he will have an expertise that he exercises at a high level. At the end of a workday, he will often be able to see that his work made a difference in the lives of people whose problems he has solved. He will not be confined to a cubicle and, after his apprenticeship, will be his own supervisor in the field. Top electricians often become independent contractors who have no boss at all.

The intrinsic rewards of being a top manager can be just as great as those of a top electrician (though I would not claim they are greater), but the intrinsic rewards of being a mediocre manager are not. Even as people in white-collar jobs lament the soullessness of their work, the intrinsic rewards of exercising technical skills remain undiminished.

Finally, there is an overarching consideration so important it is hard to express adequately: the satisfaction of being good at what one does for a living (and knowing it), compared to the melancholy of being mediocre at what one does for a living (and knowing it). This is another truth about living a human life that a 17-year-old might not yet understand on his own, but that a guidance counselor can bring to his attention. Guidance counselors and parents who automatically encourage young people to go to college straight out of high school regardless of their skills and interests are being thoughtless about the best interests of young people in their charge.

Full essay here

Just how is time perceived and has the concept of time changed across human history?  Phillip Zimbardo aims to answer the above questions in his new book, The Time Paradox.

Zimbardo touches on a few "fun facts" surrounding human perception, attitudes, and facts towards time, for example:

• Individuals living near the equator tend to be less "future oriented" and more concerned about the "present". 
  
  
• The more education an individuals has received the more "future oriented" the person tends to be.
  
  
• In a well publicized study, young children who are offered one treat now or two treats later (thus delaying gratification and positioning themselves in the future) tend to score better on the SAT (and is a better predictor of success than IQ).

Listen to an Interview with Zimbardo on the Leonard Lopate show from WNYC.org

If you're any where near the NYC metro area, then you're bound to notice great tension in the air.  The tension is the by-product of recent financial news headlined by the financial giant Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy.  Today's NY Times summarizes the current state on Wall Street well:

Nervous investors tried to make sense of a rapidly changing financial landscape on Monday as the State of New York offered American International Group a lifeline, the Bank of America began the task of assimilating Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers started its journey into bankruptcy.

The surprising development surrounding this disastrous Monday is that the Fed allowed Lehman to file for bankruptcy.  If you remember, the Fed rushed in to bail out Bear Stearns over concerns that if a major bank was allowed to go bankrupt, financial disaster would follow. 

So what can we make of the recent developments?  From the latest news reports, there are certainly more banks to fall (even the mighty Goldman Sachs is mentioned) and with no real, grand, government intervention likely, we may see some real downturns before the Banking sector can recover.

Read all about the current financial misery at:

NY Times Business section

Wall Street Journal

Financial Times

Well before my wife and I were married we shared intimate discussions about our dreams, goals, and beliefs (like most healthy couples).  On the topic of money, we shared our financial goals and we were surprised how aligned our individual plans were (I'm not sure if this is common or not)! 

On the same topic my good friend recently sent me a New York Time article on how the key to wedding bliss is to marry someone who shares similiar personal finance goals ("The Key to Wedded Bliss? Money Matters").  And, boy, couldn't I agree more with the article!  Thanks, Av.

OPEC is taking measures to cut oil production in order to control market pricing - don't you love the oil cartel.

George Bush has ordered fighting to begin in Pakistan.

The world didn't suck itself into a man-made black hole.

You think your family was competitive, see the latest review on The House of Wittgenstein.

Finally, what makes working class and rural Americans vote for pro-business Republicans when their interests will not be served?  Psychology Professor Jonathan Haidt of the University of Virginia attempts to offer an answer.

About three years ago I turned to my Uncle Patrick and said that Google is trying to get into the general advertising game.  I didn't think much of the claim until I started seeing countless articles and posts on Google Radio, Google Print, and Google TV, Google Gadgets, and Google Disply (or banner ads) over the last year or two (culminating a recent NY Times article).  And then I kind of mentally slapped myself and realized, yeah, they're trying to be an old school advertising firm (see Mad Men!) ; maybe minus the creative design part!  But, why would Google want to get old school and move away from Paid Search or Search Engine Marketing?  The answer is easy and it's driven by two factors:

1. $$$ (or money) and,
   
2. Data (or what users do)

Google continues to get rich by playing in every media channel (not just paid search or keyword advertising) and provides value to advertisers by capturing user behavior data on their brand.

The Google business model is also traditional and has been followed by countless brands (think Mercedes-Benz going from S-Class expensive sedan to C-Class entry level sedan or Giorgio Armani going from exclusive clothing to Emporio Armani "every day" clothing line). 

In other words, the first part of the Google business model centers on introducing a fabulous and exclusive consumer product (a luxurious sedan, an exquisite suit with fine material, and a super accurate search engine backed by targeted keywords on the results page).  The secondary part of the model is to broaden the product lineup by introducing a spin off product (in most cases at a lower price point and of somewhat lower quality).  Google moved into banner and radio advertising, for example, and the end product wasn't as impactful as their traditional keyword offering (results are less measurable and don't provide the advertiser with the same ROI).

So, what does the future have in store for Google?  Well, predicting the future is tough stuff but I'll bet on Google trying to deliver on the next killer app and at the same time supporting the business with targeted marketing program offerings.  Now, is the model as lucrative as Microsoft or IBM's business?  No, in the humble opinion of this blogger, but there is valaue in innovation and hard work and Google is winning on that front.

- Why do certain countries prosper while others find it so difficult to grow?

- Why did the Industrial Revolution occur in England during the 17th century?

- How do cultural attitudes play a role in economic development?

Clark also challenges modern day economists to better understand history and I couldn't agree with him more. After all, economics is not just about number crunching, hedging, banking, international trade, etc., rather the field is also about understanding current economic conditions in relation to what has happened in the past. 

If you make your living working on the web then you've most likely heard of the terms, user experience, usability, human factors, user interface, etc.  And for the most part, the terms all have something to do with making it EASIER for the end user to interact with a web page or application. 

The folks at Human Factors International, a usability consulting firm, have recently put out a little video describing the differences between usability and user experience (video of Eric Schaffer is on the homepage), which I think is an important distinction if you're into geeky web stuff.

The NY Times has a terrific interactive map on how people across the world spend their discretionary income.  Some interesting findings include Japan spending more on recreation than clothing and Greece throwing money at clothing versus electronics.  Read the full article here.

The US Government likes to keep unemployement between 2-5 percent, 0 unemployment is actually a bad thing (according to some economists), so it's quite surpising to see the latest unemployment figures at over 6 percent.

Have you ever given much thought to what it must have been like for an intellectual during the Inquisition?  Say, for example, you opposed the Church and read a little Plato; that could get you in some serious trouble, as it did for the sixteenth - century heretic Giordano Bruno.

Predicting and understanding markets is tough stuff, in fact I don't think any one has done it well thus far.  Part of the problem is that markets have an irrational factor, namely, human behavior.

Behavioral Economics is a new field of study that aims to integrate psychology and neuroscience to the study of Economics.

Business Week ran an article on Emotiv Systems' new Epoc headset which apparently can communicate wirelessly with a PC and allow a users to play a game or arrange photos on a screen without any other input device!

I've been fascinated with Kafka since High School and Zadie Smith offers an excellent review of The Tremendous World I Have Inside My Head: Franz Kafka: A Biographical Essay.

I think vegetarianism will most likely be the preferred way of eating in the far future (say once we over fish the oceans and grow up ethically as a civilization) and Su restaurant in the NYC metro area will start the conversion of the meat eaters (I'm currently one but thinking about a conversion)!

NPR ran a piece on US born psych-folk singer, Rodriguez.  Rodriguez is a completely obscure artist (outside of South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand), but is know enjoying a renaissance after the re-release of Cold Fact.

You can read Rodriguez's bio at Joe's Pub here and listen to his single Sugarman here.

OK, so I just updated my Facebook status to read, "Vincent is feeling Old World" and I need to explain the thinking behind the status:

I just finished watching Emanuele's Crialese's The Golden Door and it was truly magnificent.  Crialese tells the story of a Sicilian's family voyage to the US in the early 20th century.  The film is simplistic in story, but very rich in language and meaning.  The language component is remarkable in that Crialese manages to accurately reproduce the Calabrian/Sicilian dialect.  The film has rich dream sequences and true to life depictions of the immigrant experience at Ellis Island (psychological tests and all - looks like the Soviets weren't the only ones trying to create a perfect society).

The film had tremendous meaning to me as I'm a first generation American - my parent's immigrated to the US in the early 1970's (from the same environment that Crialese depicts in his film).  However, you don't need to be an immigrant's son to appreciate the film, so go out and find the DVD or purchase it on Amazon.

Here's the trailer:

The web is cluttered with personal finance content, including blogs like thesimpledollar.com and mymoneyblog.com.  My favorite personal finance content, however, can be found at Kiplinger's and Money.  Kiplinger's content is divided into "Ahead", "Investing", "Money", "Living", and "In Every Issue" sections, while Money Magazine includes content on "Start", 'Money", "Launch", "Plan", "Home", "Spend", and "Invest".

I also like the Wall Street Journal's "Personal Finance" section.  Whatever personal finance content you enjoy reading best, it's vital that you keep your knowledge and awareness of best practices up to date!