Recently in Geek Category

If you're fully engaged in the modern world then you've probably used statistics to make arguments and push a particular interest (like predicting orders or market conditions, if you work at a consumer product company, for example).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in both his book, The Black Swan, and more recently in his essay, THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS, argues that the banking industry has used statistics to lose over 1 Trillion dollars thus far (more than the industry has ever made)!

Prima facie, the argument seems convincing, but go ahead and read the essay critically and let me know what you think.

Here's some content from the essay:

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically--but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).

About three years ago I turned to my Uncle Patrick and said that Google is trying to get into the general advertising game.  I didn't think much of the claim until I started seeing countless articles and posts on Google Radio, Google Print, and Google TV, Google Gadgets, and Google Disply (or banner ads) over the last year or two (culminating a recent NY Times article).  And then I kind of mentally slapped myself and realized, yeah, they're trying to be an old school advertising firm (see Mad Men!) ; maybe minus the creative design part!  But, why would Google want to get old school and move away from Paid Search or Search Engine Marketing?  The answer is easy and it's driven by two factors:

1. $$$ (or money) and,
   
2. Data (or what users do)

Google continues to get rich by playing in every media channel (not just paid search or keyword advertising) and provides value to advertisers by capturing user behavior data on their brand.

The Google business model is also traditional and has been followed by countless brands (think Mercedes-Benz going from S-Class expensive sedan to C-Class entry level sedan or Giorgio Armani going from exclusive clothing to Emporio Armani "every day" clothing line). 

In other words, the first part of the Google business model centers on introducing a fabulous and exclusive consumer product (a luxurious sedan, an exquisite suit with fine material, and a super accurate search engine backed by targeted keywords on the results page).  The secondary part of the model is to broaden the product lineup by introducing a spin off product (in most cases at a lower price point and of somewhat lower quality).  Google moved into banner and radio advertising, for example, and the end product wasn't as impactful as their traditional keyword offering (results are less measurable and don't provide the advertiser with the same ROI).

So, what does the future have in store for Google?  Well, predicting the future is tough stuff but I'll bet on Google trying to deliver on the next killer app and at the same time supporting the business with targeted marketing program offerings.  Now, is the model as lucrative as Microsoft or IBM's business?  No, in the humble opinion of this blogger, but there is valaue in innovation and hard work and Google is winning on that front.

If you make your living working on the web then you've most likely heard of the terms, user experience, usability, human factors, user interface, etc.  And for the most part, the terms all have something to do with making it EASIER for the end user to interact with a web page or application. 

The folks at Human Factors International, a usability consulting firm, have recently put out a little video describing the differences between usability and user experience (video of Eric Schaffer is on the homepage), which I think is an important distinction if you're into geeky web stuff.

Business Week ran an article on Emotiv Systems' new Epoc headset which apparently can communicate wirelessly with a PC and allow a users to play a game or arrange photos on a screen without any other input device!

The NY Times ran a profile piece on co-Facebook creator, Chris Hughes this morning, including his new position with the Obama campaign as "online organizing guru."

Hughes set up Obama' web site, which is a social networking wet dream, including tons of interaction points focused on email, text messaging, donate, and the ubiquitous Facebook, Myspace, LinkedIn, etc. calls to action.

Obama is the first presidential candidate to effectively use the web for organizing and motivating voters and it may be the tool that helps him win the Presidency.

The NY Times recently ran an article on the age old debate of whether cell phones cause cancer.  The most shocking info to come out of the article concerns three prominent neuroscientists who all claim not to hold their cell phones to their ear!

Well, the search is over!

Heather Armstrong runs a blog called, Dooce.com which has recently been all over the media.  Armstrong also just published a collection of essays entitled, "Things I Learned About My Dad" 

I read Heather's blog pretty regularly and I'm not quite sure why, but I think it has something to do with how engrossing and ever changing the content is.

I also like Jason Perlow's blog, Off the Broiler and Jason Kottke's blog, kottke.org/ . 

Off the Broiler is foodie centered and Jason has great reviews of local Northern New Jersey food spots, while Kottke.org is more of a generalist blog focused on culture, technology, etc.

Oh, Sharyn Morrow runs a blog called, Weapons of Mass Distraction which follows her daily goings on with her son.

I've always told friends, colleagues, and family that the New Yorker is essential reading.  After all, where else can you, as an amateur intellectual, get the best in short stories, profiles, feature stories, book and movie reviews?  The New Yorker is not only essential reading, but critical to continuing one's life-long education.

The latest book review from The New Yorker focuses on whether technology drives history - with great tidbits on Tesla and Edison and Marx's stance on technology.

New applications of Graphical User Interfaces will flood the market in coming years, for example, a gesture based interface is starting to become ubiquitous on Apple devices (iPhone, Macbook Air, Touch, etc.).

New Scientist recently ran an article on mobile devices using non visual feedback so drivers do not have to take their eyes off the road while driving.

And, of course, everyone remembers Minority Report, right: